Velocity divergence

Every signal is measured against two things: where the product was before the deal, and a rival that wasn't bought. Divergence is the metric.

Mock data, invented for the argument. Companion to the essay → read it here

5 of 6 signals now trending below their own pre-acquisition baseline, while every absolute number still looks healthy.
Day 74
since close
2
past threshold
0
flagged by a KPI
Post-acquisition (actual) Own baseline Independent peer

Nothing here is broken. Every line is still moving. That's exactly why it's dangerous: the product that's decaying and the product that's healthy both keep shipping. The only difference is the slope, and slope is the thing a status update never shows.

← Read the essay this instrument came from